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Lessons from modelling COVID-19 scenarios in Kenya and implications for policy and planning

This study examined and modelled the cross-country spread of the novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa and outside Africa, finally converging on Kenya as the country of interest. A review of the models widely used to calibrate policy and strategic responses confirmed the suitability of statistical models for predicting the spread of COVID-19, within a 10% margin of error. The main objective was to provide insights into the spread of COVID-19 and present “what-if” scenarios in aid of policy simulations within a compact bandwidth of future scenarios, as required for policy and planning. The models proved resourceful in predicting the end month cases within10% and the likelihood of subsequent waves, both in terms of the magnitudes and the time of starting and flattening. In the case of Kenya, the period of the waves tended to be approximately four months within the study period presented here, from April 2020 to May 2021. The key lessons imply a greater role of modelling, digitalisation, geospatial and mapping technologies, and transdisciplinary research in the aspirational future of disease and disaster governance.

Uploaded by: Nashon Adero
Author: Adero, Nashon | ORCID: 0000-0003-2830-7912
Institution: Taita Taveta University College | Centre: Kenyan German Centre for Mining, Environmental Engineering and Resource Management (CEMEREM)
Type: Journal article | English | Peer Reviewed
Subjects: Health and Pandemic Prevention, Governance

Published: Academia Letters, ISSN 2771-9359 | Article 1862 | San Francisco, California : Academia Letters
Date: July 2021 | Pages: 10 pages
Copyright: ©2021 by the Author | License: Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0
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